In continuity for our last blog we want to analyze the most painful figures once again and want to see for how much more time world have to suffer with Pandemic condition. So far we all are not at good condition for our fight against this severe condition. Giants like USA, France, Germany and many other counties are looking very small in front of this Pandemic crisis condition. With more and more pain we all as a unity in ISOLATION mode standing again and again to fight against the Crisis. There are both good and bad what we have done, let us analyze those features through data in continuity as per per our last blog https://kite4sky.in/2020/03/21/you-have-no-idea-whats-coming/
Topic we will be covering:
- Source for Data
- Validating effect in figures and numbers
- Testing : Without Testing results for Covid-19 we can never be sure about how much adversely it have affected the world
- Cases: The exact number of Covid-19 cases are still unknown for all of us, this is because of less testing, people with no symptoms.
- Mortality :CFR(Case fatality rate study)
Source for Data: We have tried to gather data from John Hopkins University for our detailed analysis
Figures and numbers: While i am writing this blog data for different countries in world is getting doubled each 2nd day, 4th day and so on. We all have been a complete failure for stopping the virus growth daily. As you can see in the trend below, how the data for counties is getting doubled each 2nd day or 4th day. Japan is the only country which is having doubling rate near about to week. Week later USA was doubling it count in 4 Days. This week i.e. as of 8th April ,the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. surpassed 426,000 on Wednesday, according to figures provided by NBC, with 12,864 fatalities nationwide.Just one week back they were having around 213,000 cases. India is also doubling its figures every 4th-5th consecutive day now. India was having 3082 cases on 4th April and on 8th April it have been doubled to 5916. You can refer to image below as per doubling rate for different counties. As per the graph we can easily see the growth for Spain, Italy and Germany have started to steep down. We will discuss the reason for this further
Impact Of Testing : Different counties in world have followed different tactics to fight with Covid-19 and finally most important thing which came out is that Testing and Self Isolation are two mechanism which can cure this pandemic crisis. Let see how world is doing in terms of Testing .
As you can see world have now increased number of Test per day. At Mar-26 USA were doing 427 Test/Million population which have been increased 7088 Test/Million population as of Apr-09 and this is the most important reason for sudden rise in number of cases in USA. With the coming weeks there will be steep decrease in number of cases in USA. Germany have done the testing most effectively. They are testing 15730 Test/Million population(1317887-Total Number Of Test). UAE is having highest rate as per Test/Million(59967/Million) which is too high and other important thing apart from testing they are having Strict Lockdown rules they are having cases but not too much high. Really very well job done by UAE government on this. Italy have increased number of Test and that was the main reason for number of cases in Italy. Italy have also started to follow a decreasing slope. India having second largest population and as cases have start increasing in India every 4th Day Testing speed is low as per population size- 129/Million , but in total 177584.
One of most important point about testing is that USA is having 19.71% as true positive cases for Covid cases, Spain 43%, India having very low 3.7 % as of now
Below figure give Number Of Test Done by different countries in decreasing order and their Mortality Rate
Critical Cases: This one is most important part, which is directly correlated with number of test being done, number of test and with other factors, refer to correlation matrix chart after Serious case Vs Recovered Graph. USA have most number of serious case which generally mean more number of fatality in coming days and after this period they will have steep down curve. One thing which is most surprising for USA is apart from having most number of cases, more deaths, more critical cases they are having less recovery rate as compared to other country, reason for this as increased number of cases their health system have started collapsing.
Germany is doing really well, whether we talk about Testing, Recovered cases. COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, has been much deadlier in older people, but more anecdotes are popping up of young, healthy people getting critically ill. Among the first reported cases in the US, around 40 percent of the patients that required hospitalization were between the ages of 20 and 54 and severe treatment as well. This is main reason for USA for number of severe condition people as both young and old people are getting affected and requiring medical aid. This serious cases will decrease in coming day as USA is now trying to figure out each and every cases for Covid-19 and within 2-3 weeks we will see good news for USA for coming out of Covid-19.
Case Fatality Rate : In an outbreak of an infectious disease it is important to not only study the number of deaths, but also the growth rate at which the number of deaths is increasing. In opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.” To report the rate of change we focus on the question: How long did it take for the number of confirmed deaths to double? Let’s take an example: if three days ago there had been 500 confirmed deaths in total, and today we have reached 1,000, then the doubling time is three days.The doubling time of deaths has changed and it will change in the future; we should not naively extrapolate the current doubling time to conclude how many people will die.If deaths go up by a fixed number over a fixed period – say, by 500 every two days – then we call that “linear” growth. But if they keep on doubling within a fixed time period – say, every three days – then we call that “exponential” growth. Let us try to understand doubling logic with graph. CFR rate have been increase from 1.5% to 4 % in less then one month. So you can imagine how fast this rate is increasing as well
- We don’t know how many were infected -When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don’t know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that.
- The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those who have been reported to the WHO
- It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization
- Elderly people and unwell are more likely to die. Death rate for people over 70 is 10 times as compared to people less then 40
- Death rate for most Covid-19 patient depend on the following health condition in decreasing order- Cardiovascular, Diabetes, Respiratory Disease, High Blood Pressure.
- Most cases of Covid-19 get uncounted because tend not to visit to doctor with mild symptoms. That is reason Total cases are lot more then exact figure we are seeing and people of old age are at most danger situation due to such carriers, which can actually be 7-8 times more then that. I have shared my calculation for this in my last blog.
- Reason for different CFR rate for different countries- It actually depend on the number of cases that are being tested, Germany is doing more then 30000 test daily and has been testing mild symptoms carriers too which might get ignored as per above point
- Age wise comparison: Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.
- Doubling Rate: This chart is not showing good results as per humanity. You can generally see that how the figures are getting doubled every four day, week for countries.
Total Cases: Number of cases are increasing by 1 40000 every 2nd day. As per today Apr-10th we are having figures as per table below. With increase in number of Test now days cases are growing in large number
Prediction Using Arima Model : ARIMA stands for Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average. There are seasonal and Non-seasonal ARIMA models that can be used for forecasting. We will be covering the detail about Arima Model in coming blogs.
As per our model which we have done prediction on 9th April, India will be having given case by end of April
We are also trying to get time series data for number of test for getting forecasting more accurate. It is evaluated on basis of RMSLE. The RMSLE for a single column calculated as
n is the total number of observations
p is your prediction
ai is the actual value
log(x) is the natural logarithm of x
Correlation matrix as per different attribute
You can refer to given notebook on Kaggle for Visualization and Forecasting Model : Notebook Link
Link for Tableau Dashboard : It get refreshed once a day : Tableau Dashboard.
While writing this blog i was feeling very sad as in every data points in our Viz or forecast are people who are fighting with Covid-19.
So please be safe and take care of your loved ones and help the needy one !