You have no idea What’s Coming

‘Be prepared’ something worse is coming. Unfortunately, most governments to most people, from China to the US, have ignored this and their people are suffering the tremendous onslaught of the Coronavirus. Most of the countries from Europe to US, India to china are in state of quarantine because of this Coronavirus outbreak. It is time for all of us to come together with Isolation mode, being isolated but being together for supporting each other is the only way to fight this disaster.

Coronavirus phase consist of given stages.

  • Stage 1: Most of the world have taken this stage very lightly, ‘We are safe as it have only spread in China, ‘my immunity system is good, so no need to worry’, ‘i am safe as i am less then 70’. None of the country in world have taken this stage seriously, when we have only small numbers of Coronavirus cases. In case the world have taken strict action or even we people have done then situation have been different.Government should have restricted all flight from Countries affected with Coronavirus. But what now, we are in stage 2.
  • Stage 2: Number of cases begin to increase . Government only declare or red zone area for few of the state or area. Cases increase in slow pace and there are some death . People mentality at stage 2 ‘Media is creating a hype’ , ‘People are dead because they are more then 70 and carrier for some disease’ , ‘I’m not going to stop and will party with my friends’ , ‘Offices doesn’t have any backup plan’, People are still enjoying their “Social” life
  • Stage 3: Number of cases start increasing exponentially. They get doubled every 2 or 3 days. Now it is the time of fear. People saying ‘I’m not going to stop and will party with my friends’ are now blaming each other and government, but remember you are also responsible for Stage 3 and more worse in further stages. Steps have been taken but still government have not taken fool proof action plan, some people are still not taking it serious. People with fear of Coronavirus are now spreading within countries, Person working in some metro cities for his earning is running to his/her area where Coronavirus is not spread as of now. So from International level carriers Coronavirus have become traveler withing your countries too. Isn’t it more worse 😦 . Government should have banned travel with countries itself. Government are spreading message for washing hands, hand sanitizer, not to go outside, isolation, but still there are some people who have learned nothing
  • Stage4 : Number of cases have been increased to figure which you have never assume. Now everything is closed, people have locked them inside their home. It is national level health emergency. Economy is decreasing, hospital staff are working day and night for Coronavirus cases or test. Cases will become so large that there will be not enough of medical staff. This means other patient who are infected with some other diseases and if someone get affected with some heart attack etc. they will be not treated as corona cases have high priority and less medical staff, so death rate gets affected, In USA before Corona virus case average time for reaching an ambulance was 8-10 minutes which have been increase a lot. In simple each and every system will start collapsing. Now the virus is not alone dangerous, but there are lot of other things that have become deadly weapon too. Please refer to some of deadly views how the virus have grown all over the world.

As you can see with above trend Feb-24 Italy were having 237 cases and at Mar-3 they were having 2741 cases and on Mar-20 they were having 55,493 cases. First case which came to Italy was in Jan-31. So you can easily get the idea as per stages above with given trends. Total number of death in Italy as of now are 4032 and total recovered cases 4440 cases. Total number of death in Italy on Mar-3 were 79 and total recovered cases 160 cases. Mortality rate from Mar-3 till Mar-20 have increased from 2.8 percent to 7.2%.

As you can see with above trend Feb-24 US were having 56 cases and at Mar-3 they were having 546 cases , Mar-15 3574 cases and on Mar-20 they were having 19344 cases. First case which came to US was in Jan-31. So you can easily get the idea as per stages above with given trends. Total number of death in US as of now are 244 .Total number of death in US on Mar-3 were 7 and total recovered cases 7 cases. Mortality rate from Mar-3 till Mar-20 have increased from 1.2 percent to 6.8%. So as you can see with increase in number of cases mortality rate is increasing as we are lacking in Medical aids .

Let us analyze the country which have Covid-19 cases more then 10000. We can see Korea have done really well as per reducing the number of cases. China is also doing good, situation looks like in their control. Apart from that for all of the other countries in top are at worst scenario. One most important things which need to be paid attention is that Mortality rate is increasing with rise in Number of cases.For Italy Mortality rate have been increase to 9 %. One factor affecting the country’s death rate may be the age of its population—Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older. Many of Italy’s deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s. But on the other hand being as oldest population in world Japan have maintained the Mortality rate as well as the decline in Covid-19 cases.This is important. Other reason for increasing Mortality rate is facilities and resources. As with increase number of cases more ICU beds and ventilators will be required. This is why people died in droves in Hubei and are now dying in droves in Italy and Iran. The Hubei fatality rate ended up better than it could have been because they built 2 hospitals nearly overnight, but the other country will be able to do that. If 5% of your cases require intensive care and you can’t provide it, most of those people die. As simple as that. This condition will be give rise to collateral damage. Above numbers only show people dying from coronavirus. But what happens if all your healthcare system is collapsed by coronavirus patients? Others also die from other ailments. What happens if you have a heart attack but the ambulance takes 50 minutes to come instead of 8 (too many coronavirus cases) and once you arrive, there’s no ICU and no doctor available? You die. Let us take an example of US, There are 4 million admissions to the ICU in the US every year, and 500k (~13%) of them die. Without ICU beds, that share would likely go much closer to 80%. Even if only 50% died, in a year-long epidemic you go from 500k deaths a year to 2M, so you’re adding 1.5M deaths, just with collateral damage.If the coronavirus is left to spread, the US healthcare system will collapse, and the deaths will be in the millions. The same thinking is true for most countries. The number of ICU beds and ventilators and healthcare workers are usually similar to the US or lower in most countries. Unbridled coronavirus means healthcare system collapse, and that means mass death.

Just imagine the condition for India,we lack in most of the healthcare facilities and with second largest population it will become a disaster. We can’t live in denial model that let’s quarantine the numbers of people affected and it will stop, reason for this as numbers of cases are very large in number what we. In India today we have 300 active cases, but as per our calculation we find that this number should be somewhere around 4000. This is because of asymptomatic adults, who have the infection but no symptoms and also it take 5-14 days for showing it symptoms and person dying from this as per average of days is near about to 17.So think how much chain reaction this can be. Many people in Korea who are feeling absolutely fine but are contagious to COVID-19 between 20-29 are 29% of total population. But due to strong immunity and younger generation they are not feeling anything.

As per above report we can see that recovery rate in China have increase a lot. Confirmed cases as of Mar-21 are 81305 in China and Recovered cases are 71857 taking a total to 89 %. This have been increased a lot in case we compare China recovery percentage as on Feb-25 which was 35 %(77754 total case 27676 recovered one out of that) and which was 1.3% on Feb-12. This have generally increased seriousness by China government on understanding this disaster(Building hospital and increasing hospital staff), though they were already late. Italy is having recovery rate % on Date Mar-21 as 11 %. India is having less then 7 %, though the cases are not more, which is big point of concern for India

Refer to Dashboard Link: https://public.tableau.com/views/Covid-19Dashboard_15846544259180/Dashboard1?:display_count=y&publish=yes&:origin=viz_share_link

We have to save us from situation like Italy or China. Italy 4825 fatalities account for 38.3 percent of world’s total 12700 deaths. Total 1420 death since Friday.

Increase in no of case as per last Day

What to do

India have really a tough time, with less no be medical beds and facilities, poverty and most important large population. We generally believe in rumors too quickly, political parties in this phase are thinking of Politics.Locking down the country of a billion from outside will not be enough now. Neither will be tracking each case as it comes as we lack in that expertise. Locking down condition for government is too tough, as it can create panic and civil war type situation too.

Our government is late in doing things but now they are working hard. We have to help and support them, just get isolated and keep a distance with Old generation as virus is really worse for them.

Social distancing or isolated mode is only solution, it is important for young and elder population to stop it from spreading . All state borders should be closed by government for next few days. Soon the government will run out of options, and we will blame them, without realizing, they didn’t bring the virus. We know we have shortage of healthcare system, so try not to be in next stage of this chain, else consequences will be worst.

We should support the think tanker and Leaders, and should respect their decision and provide the courage and strength for fighting with this situation. This is the most contagious disease as of now and in case government take some strict action we should follow and do not create panic type of situation.

At last please be unsocial, isolation is only cure for this virus, wash your hand clean metal and other surface. Please maintain social distancing.

For the above images: Dashboard Link (Dashboard get updated 2 times in a day):

https://public.tableau.com/views/Covid-19Dashboard_15846544259180/Dashboard1?:display_count=y&publish=yes&:origin=viz_share_link
https://public.tableau.com/views/Covid-19DashboardTrend/TrendAnalysisMobile?:display_count=y&publish=yes&:origin=viz_share_link

Team Kite4Sky

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